Pradeep Kapoor
The recent results of the Uttar Pradesh by-elections have significantly boosted the morale of the BJP in the state and further solidified Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s leadership at both the state and national levels. With the NDA securing victories in seven out of nine assembly seats, Yogi Adityanath has emerged as a more powerful figure within his party, overcoming earlier setbacks from the Lok Sabha elections held in April and May of this year.
It’s important to note that following the BJP’s disappointing performance in the Lok Sabha elections, there was considerable pressure for a change in leadership within Uttar Pradesh. The party’s subordinate figure, Keshav Prasad Maurya, publicly voiced concerns, buoyed by support from the BJP’s central leadership. Despite the criticism, Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath managed to maintain his position.
Since then, Yogi Adityanath has increasingly asserted his authority as a formidable chief minister. For the first time since assuming office in 2017, he appointed a chief secretary and Director General of Police (DGP) of his choosing. With these key positions under his control, he effectively took command of the state bureaucracy. After solidifying his influence among bureaucrats, Yogi turned to the party and the RSS for their full support.
The chief minister viewed the nine assembly seats in the by-elections as a personal challenge. In executing his strategy, he dispatched over 20 ministers to assist in the nine constituencies. He also sought assistance from influential RSS members to coordinate efforts for the success of BJP candidates, holding multiple meetings with key RSS officials.
Notably, one of the factors contributing to the BJP’s lackluster performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections was the perceived non-cooperation from the RSS. With a firm grip on state administration and collaboration from party leaders and the Sangh Parivar, Yogi Adityanath took the reins for the by-elections, campaigning vigorously by addressing 13 rallies and conducting two roadshows. The NDA emerged victorious, winning seven out of the nine seats, with BJP winning in Ghaziabad, Khair, Kundarki, Phulpur, Manjhawan, and Katehri. Meanwhile, its ally RLD retained its seat in Meerapur.
During a celebratory event at the party headquarters, CM Yogi Adityanath credited the victory to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s slogan, “Ek rahenge to safe rehenge,” as well as the effective governance of the double-engine governments at both the state and central levels, along with ongoing development projects and welfare initiatives. He also acknowledged the vital support from party leaders and grassroots workers during the elections. His slogan, “Batoge to Katoge,” received backing from the RSS and was widely discussed in political campaigns in Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra prior to the elections.
The successful selection of candidates also played a crucial role in the competitive performance of the BJP’s candidates, with six out of nine NDA candidates being new. The main opposition, the Samajwadi Party (SP), managed to hold on to only two seats in this round. Particularly significant for the SP was its loss in Kundarki, where the Muslim population exceeds 60%. In an unexpected turn, BJP candidate Ramvir Singh won in Kundarki by a margin of 1.44 lakhs, a feat likely aided by a division in Muslim votes.
Former Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav attributed the SP’s defeat to widespread electoral malpractice, citing videos taken during voting as evidence. He claimed that large-scale discrepancies occurred in Kundarki, alleging that individuals without ink on their fingers were marked as having voted in the polling records.
The SP president has called for forensic examinations of the electronic voting machines (EVMs) to reveal potential corruption on election day. He argued that the BJP government intentionally excluded officials associated with disadvantaged communities from election duties in the contested constituencies. The overconfidence displayed by Akhilesh Yadav, particularly following the Lok Sabha elections, has also been linked to the poorer showing of the party in the by-elections.
Akhilesh Yadav’s failure to collaborate with Congress and other parties during the elections may have hindered his chances. The lack of discussions regarding seat-sharing with Congress fostered discontent among its leaders, leading to reduced support for SP candidates. Moreover, in certain areas, the presence of other parties, such as the AIMIM and the Azad Samaj Party led by Chandrashekhar Ravan, diluted the SP’s voter base. This time around, Akhilesh Yadav was unable to capitalize on the support of backward classes, Dalits, and minorities during the elections.
If Akhilesh Yadav does not evolve his approach towards Congress and other parties and becomes more inclusive, it will be challenging for him to contend with the BJP in the upcoming 2027 assembly elections. The SP has lost the momentum gained from the recent Lok Sabha elections, where it achieved a tally of 37 seats, outperforming the BJP in the state during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. (IPA)