BANGKOK, Feb 1: The outlook for peace in Myanmar appears grim, as civil war continues to escalate four years after the military seized power from an elected civilian government, despite international calls for restraint.
The political landscape remains fraught, with no negotiations anticipated between the military administration and the leading opposition factions challenging its authority.
Since the army’s takeover on February 1, 2021, the country has experienced a deepening crisis, with close to half the population living in poverty and the economy in turmoil, according to the UN Development Programme.
The UN Human Rights Office reported a dramatic increase in violence against civilians last year, resulting in the highest civilian death toll since the military’s power grab.
The military has employed relentless airstrikes and artillery bombardments against civilian populations, conscripted thousands of youth into military service, carried out arbitrary detentions, and obstructed humanitarian access during natural disasters.
“It is profoundly distressing after four years to witness the situation deteriorate further for civilians,” remarked UN human rights chief Volker Turk.
“Even as military power diminishes, their atrocities and brutality have intensified,” he added, highlighting that these retaliatory actions aim to subdue and intimidate the populace.
The collaboration of the United States, United Kingdom, European Union, and other nations condemned the military takeover and called for the release of deposed leader Aung San Suu Kyi and other political prisoners.
The joint statement indicated that nearly 20 million individuals require humanitarian aid, with up to 3.5 million internally displaced—an increase of approximately 1 million over the previous year.
Furthermore, they expressed concern regarding the rise of cross-border crimes in Myanmar, including drug trafficking, human trafficking, and online scams, which threaten neighboring nations and regional stability.
“The current trajectory is unsustainable for Myanmar or the region,” the coalition, which also included Australia, Canada, South Korea, New Zealand, Norway, and Switzerland, concluded.
The current state of the conflict
The military’s 2021 coup ignited widespread protests met with violent crackdowns from security forces, igniting armed resistance that has escalated into full-scale civil war.
Ethnic militias and the pro-democracy People’s Defense Forces now control extensive territories, while the military retains authority over much of central Myanmar and major urban centers, including the capital, Naypyidaw.
The Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, which documents arrests and casualties linked to military suppression, reports at least 6,239 fatalities and over 28,444 arrests since the coup.
The true death toll is believed to be significantly higher, as this group does not typically include military deaths and struggles to verify incidents in remote regions.
Aung Thu Nyein, the communications director at the Institute for Strategy and Policy-Myanmar, remarked to The Associated Press that Myanmar’s circumstances are at an all-time low, with peace and progress being increasingly elusive.
“What’s even more troubling is that the military’s claimed sovereignty is eroding, and the nation’s borders could shift,” Aung Thu Nyein warned in a text message.
Over the past year, the military has faced unprecedented setbacks on the battlefield as ethnic armed groups achieved victories in the northeast near the Chinese border and in the Rakhine state.
These ethnic factions swiftly captured several towns, military installations, and key regional commands, thereby diminishing the army’s influence in other areas.
For decades, ethnic minorities have sought greater autonomy from the central government and are now loosely allied with the pro-democracy People’s Defense Forces established following the military’s 2021 coup.
In recent statements, the UN Human Rights Office and organizations such as Amnesty International have unfavorably noted that opposing armed factions have also committed human rights violations in regions they control.
The status of election efforts
In an attempt to find a political resolution, the military government is pushing for elections, which it has promised to hold this year.
Critics assert that these elections will not be free or fair due to the suppression of civil rights, imprisonment of political adversaries, and the initiative’s apparent aim to legitimize military dominance.
Recently, the military government extended its state of emergency by an additional six months, citing the need for more time to restore stability ahead of the elections, according to state-run MRTV.
No specific date for the polls has been announced.
Tom Andrews, a special rapporteur with the UN human rights office, emphasized that a fair election is impossible while opposition leaders are arrested, tortured, or executed, and when dissent against the military government’s actions is met with illegality.
“Governments must recognize these plans for what they are—a facade,” warned Tom Andrews. (AP)
