By Girish Linganna
For Chinese President Xi Jinping, the conclusion of Russia’s war in Ukraine might present numerous opportunities, though it carries significant risks as well; China could become the primary focus of U.S. military attention. Recent discussions between U.S. and Russian officials in Saudi Arabia aim to find a resolution to the three-year conflict, raising alarms in Europe and Ukraine, particularly concerning the potential advantage that Donald Trump could provide to Vladimir Putin.
Beijing is hopeful about supporting the peace talks and reaping benefits from the rebuilding efforts. Amid growing rifts between the U.S. and its allies—especially regarding NATO—China remains vigilant about Trump’s next moves. Advisors close to the U.S. President, including Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth and Donald Trump Jr., have indicated a potential shift in focus of U.S. military resources towards China.
John Gong, a professor at the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing and a former consultant to China’s Commerce Ministry, mentioned that China is in a challenging predicament with no straightforward solutions. He noted that while China prefers the war to conclude or at least pause, it does not desire to become the primary target of Washington’s attention.
China has been cautious in handling its relationship with Trump, reacting mildly to his 10% tariffs and steering clear of the assertive “Wolf Warrior” diplomacy that characterized its previous foreign policy. This approach refers to a confrontational stance taken by Chinese diplomats to defend national interests, commonly employing harsh rhetoric against Western nations. Currently, Xi is primarily focused on addressing the nation’s economic difficulties, which include a prolonged property crisis, declining prices, and weak consumer spending.
Last week, Xi met with Jack Ma, the former head of Alibaba, indicating a shift towards easing regulatory measures to regain trust, especially as China prepares to announce its economic growth targets next month. The regulatory crackdown on Alibaba imposed stricter government regulations and penalties, with China tightening its grip on major tech companies to avoid monopolistic practices.
Trump has recently adopted a more amiable tone towards China, asserting on February 19 that a trade deal is “possible” and emphasizing his “very good relationship” with Xi. However, his administration contains officials like Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who advocate a tougher approach to China, vowing to confront its activities in the South China Sea.
China is wary of further scrutiny regarding its actions in the Indo-Pacific, particularly in relation to disputes with the Philippines and its claims over Taiwan. Beijing has criticized the U.S. for attempting to establish a NATO-like alliance in the Pacific, especially as the Biden administration fortifies security collaborations with Japan and South Korea. Recently, the Chinese navy dispatched three warships near Sydney, a move deemed “unusual” by Australia’s defense minister.
Hinting at a potentially firmer U.S. stance in Asia, the U.S. State Department recently removed a statement from a fact sheet indicating that the U.S. does “not support Taiwan independence.” Beijing often pressures countries with diplomatic ties to adhere to this position, and while it remains unclear if this was an intentional alteration, the U.S. continues to uphold its longstanding “one-China policy,” which recognizes Beijing as the legitimate government of China while nurturing unofficial relations with Taiwan.
As Trump cautions Ukraine’s leader, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, about the risks of not reaching a settlement with Russia, Taiwan observes the unfolding dynamics closely. A diplomat from Taiwan, which China asserts as its territory, expressed that while U.S.-Russia relations may improve, Taiwan’s priority is to accentuate its significance to Trump. The uncertainty lies in the fact that Trump’s policies may not consistently align with those of his administration; during his campaign, he challenged Biden’s commitment to defend Taiwan against China, suggesting that Taiwan should financially contribute to its defense.
Although there are no imminent indications that Xi Jinping is orchestrating an invasion of Taiwan, a less assertive U.S. posture could subject Taiwan to increased political, economic, and military pressures from China, complicating its efforts to resist Beijing’s influence and maintain autonomy.
Another scenario could involve China’s participation in a peace resolution for Ukraine under Trump’s leadership. The U.S. President has proposed a potential summit with Putin and Xi aimed at halving military expenditures; however, this idea was promptly dismissed by Beijing.
It remains uncertain what role China could assume to assist Ukraine. According to U.S. Defense Secretary Hegseth, American troops will not be deployed, and security assistance should stem from forces in Europe and other nations. This opens the door for a United Nations peacekeeping initiative possibly involving Chinese troops, though Beijing might also consider directly contributing its own forces.
Zhou Bo, a retired senior colonel with the People’s Liberation Army and a senior fellow at Tsinghua University’s Center for International Security and Strategy, noted that China could spearhead peacekeeping activities alongside Global South nations and others outside of NATO. He shared this insight in a report by SCMP, emphasizing that China’s direct involvement in Europe’s security for the first time could enhance its global standing. When inquired about joining such a mission during regular press conferences, China’s Foreign Ministry refrained from providing a definitive answer.
Yu Jie, a senior research fellow on China at Chatham House, mentioned that a ceasefire in Ukraine provides Beijing with a unique chance to mend its frayed relationship with Europe. Beijing could leverage its expertise in global infrastructure projects to facilitate Ukraine’s reconstruction, potentially offering low-cost loans through its $1 trillion Belt and Road Initiative. In a position paper on the conflict released in 2023, China expressed its readiness to assist and make positive contributions.
A position paper serves as an official document outlining a country’s or organization’s stance on a specific issue, detailing their perspective, proposed solutions, and potential actions. Should China opt to support Ukraine’s peace process through military aid or financial assistance, it may strain Xi’s robust ties with Putin, especially if Russia were to initiate further attacks. Nevertheless, recent developments in U.S.-Russia relations do not appear to have impacted the strong bond between China and Russia; indeed, Xi is still planning to visit Moscow in May, underscoring the resilience of their partnership.
Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, suggested that China is likely to adopt a long-term view in navigating global politics, given the unpredictability of U.S. leadership under Trump. Unlike Trump, who may hold office for a limited term, Putin remains a fixture in Russian politics until at least 2036, barring any health crises. Consequently, China may view Putin as a more stable and reliable ally compared to Trump.
Gabuev emphasized that it would be unwise for China to forsake a strong, dependable partnership with a long-term leader for the sake of supporting an unpredictable and capricious figure. In global politics, trust and reliability are paramount, underscoring the rationale for maintaining connections with a trustworthy ally over risking a relationship with someone whose stability and commitment could be in question.
