By Dhurjati Mukherjee
The annual climate negotiations and extensive dialogues have yielded minimal progress. The UN Environment Programme’s assessment indicates that several major economies, such as the US, Canada, Japan, Australia, China, and Saudi Arabia, are not on track to achieve their 2030 emission reduction goals or Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). In contrast, India is projected to meet its NDCs while its emissions continue to rise due to increased energy demands for fundamental development. Overall, the global outlook remains bleak, with the targets set in the Paris Agreement likely to be missed by the end of this year, as reflected in the disappointing outcomes of the Baku conference.
A closer look at the data reveals that human-induced global warming has already surpassed the 1.50°C threshold compared to pre-industrial temperatures from the 1700s, which is considered crucial for avoiding the worst impacts of climate change. A recent study showed that the human-induced average global temperature had increased by 1.49°C by the end of 2023 and is currently at 1.53°C above the 1700s level. This situation poses a significant threat, underscoring the failure of national development strategies to curb global warming effectively.
Meanwhile, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reported that the global average surface temperature from January to September 2024 was 1.54°C higher than the industrial average, exacerbated by a warming El Niño—a natural phenomenon characterized by increased Pacific Ocean surface temperatures. Under the Paris Agreement, the 1.50°C target has been nearly breached, considering that the timeframe assumed as baseline was from 1850-1900 rather than the 1700s. Clearly, the aspirations of the Paris Agreement are in jeopardy.
As both monthly and annual average temperatures temporarily exceed 1.50°C, WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo emphasized that “we have failed to meet the Paris Agreement goal of keeping the long-term global average surface temperature below 2.0°C above industrial levels.” She highlighted that extreme weather events like record rainfall, flooding, intensifying tropical cyclones, and devastating heatwaves are now the new normal, offering a glimpse into the future.
It is noteworthy to mention Simon Stiell, Executive Secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, stating that failure to integrate resilience into supply chains could cripple the global economy. He stressed the importance of climate finance at the COP29 conference, but did not address how tropical nations have already suffered due to global warming, severely impacting vulnerable communities.
Despite the pressing need for an ambitious climate finance goal known as the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG), support may not be readily available from developed nations. The challenge of reaching this funding target might be compounded by the likely reluctance of President-elect Donald Trump to allocate sufficient resources for climate mitigation in developing countries. Projections suggest that investments in clean energy and infrastructure will hit $2 trillion in 2024—almost double that of fossil fuel investments.
A significant report titled ‘Raising Ambition & Accelerating Delivery of Climate Finance’, presented at the conference, recommended a focus on mobilizing $1 trillion annually for developing countries by 2030. It cautioned that “any investment shortfall prior to 2030 will exert additional pressure in the subsequent years, creating a steeper and potentially costly pathway to climate stability.” Estimates of global investment needs for climate action stand at approximately $6.3-$6.7 trillion per year by 2030, with $2.7-$2.8 trillion required from advanced economies, $1.3-$1.4 trillion from China, and $2.3-$2.5 trillion from emerging markets and developing nations.
Additionally, groups like the Like-Minded Developing Countries and G77 have made it clear that at least $1.3 trillion in annual financing from developed to developing nations is essential. India has called for $600 billion in grant-based climate financing from developed nations, forming part of the overall $1.3 trillion requirement. The role of the G20 is critical, as emphasized by Simon Stiell during the conference. Climate action has become a central responsibility for the world’s major economies, which must play a more significant role in emissions control and providing affordable finance to emerging economies. Yet, the expected financing may fall short.
The financial needs of developing countries, already battling for resources, have been rightly identified, as these funds aim to support adaptation, mitigation, and addressing loss and damage. However, it is crucial that these funds are accessible, adequate, grant-based, and provided with low-interest, long-term conditions rather than being categorized solely as investments. Given the financial landscape of recent years, achieving the recommended target outlined in the report appears exceedingly challenging, if not impossible.
India has made it clear that developing countries should not bear the burden of the developed nations’ shortcomings regarding their pre-2020 mitigation targets. Furthermore, developed countries should refrain from imposing Intellectual Property Rights barriers to the scaling and transfer of technologies crucial for developing nations. According to India’s environment secretary, there is a pressing need for “new technologies and solutions to facilitate a transition to a low-carbon economy.” Currently, innovations in areas such as clean energy and carbon removal are still nascent, and barriers to scaling and technology transfer persist.
Despite these challenges, developed countries have only committed a mere $250 billion per year by 2035 for the developing world, falling drastically short of the $1.3 trillion demand. Experts have criticized the increase to a target of $300 billion per year by 2035, up from the current $100 billion goal, as inadequate and a disgrace, particularly when the developed world is fully aware of the catastrophic crises facing developing nations.
Moreover, this modest commitment includes primarily loans and lacks the essential promise of grant-based finance necessary for developing nations to tackle climate impacts and transition away from fossil fuels. The influence of the Trump administration may have pressured developing countries into accepting the $300 billion annual target.
However, the final UNFCCC finance text, which aimed to cover the limited funding from developed nations, also emphasized the need for all stakeholders to collaborate to elevate funding to developing countries from both public and private sources to $1.3 trillion by 2035. Subsequently, India expressed its rejection of the proposal in its current form, asserting that “it is unacceptable for developed countries to propose a meager mobilization goal of $300 billion to be realized by 2035, which is almost 11 years away, and sourced from a wide array of channels.”
At this juncture, it is essential to recognize that merely setting targets is insufficient; there must be a commitment to implement agreed measures, facilitate energy transitions, and phase out fossil fuels. This necessitates the strengthening of delivery mechanisms, accountability for failures to uphold climate targets, thorough tracking of climate financing, and acknowledgment of the connections between poverty, inequality, and planetary instability.
In conclusion, while COPs occur annually and some actions have been taken, we remain far behind in effectively addressing global warming and controlling emissions. Urgent actions are necessary from industrialized countries in the West, as well as China and India, to adopt more stringent measures in confronting this escalating environmental challenge. Nevertheless, financing remains a critical requirement that may not be adequately provided by the West, raising the question of whether a sincere and judicious approach alone can avert the looming catastrophe facing both humanity and the planet. —INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)
New Delhi
25 November 2024
