By Harrison Stetler
PARIS: French Prime Minister François Bayrou successfully navigated his first confidence vote on Thursday, just over a month after he took on the role. The vote on January 16 was initiated by the left-wing group La France Insoumise (LFI) and came two days after Bayrou delivered his inaugural “general policy” statement to the National Assembly. Ultimately, only 131 MPs in the 577-seat lower house backed the no-confidence motion — 200 votes fewer than the one that brought down the brief administration of Bayrou’s predecessor, Michel Barnier.
This week’s events in the National Assembly, while largely symbolic, provide a momentary reprieve for Bayrou, who has been tasked by President Emmanuel Macron with achieving what Barnier could not. The new Prime Minister faces what he described as a “Himalayan” challenge: securing an austerity budget for 2025 in a deeply divided parliament split into three competing factions.
A long-time associate of Macron, Bayrou stepped in as Prime Minister after the more conservative Barnier faced a no-confidence vote on December 4. That vote, which garnered combined support from the left-wing Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) and the far-right, was triggered by Barnier’s attempt to pass a social security financing bill using a special constitutional power known as “49.3,” which permits the enactment of legislation without a vote unless countered by a successful no-confidence motion.
As of now, Bayrou’s primary success has been in wooing the center-left Parti Socialiste (PS) away from its allies in the NFP. In the near-party-line vote on January 16, the seventy-one MPs from LFI were backed only by those from the ecological party (Écologistes) and the Parti Communiste Français (PCF), two allies in the NFP. Notably, two Écologistes and one PCF MP did not cast their votes alongside their respective parties. More importantly, fifty-eight out of the sixty-six PS MPs chose to abstain from the motion, aligning themselves with Bayrou’s minority coalition comprising the Macronists and the right-wing Les Républicains (LR). The abstention also included MPs allied with Marine Le Pen and her far-right supporters.
“We have chosen not to engage in a politics of rising tensions, as it would only lead to the worst outcome: the rise of the far right,” stated Olivier Faure, PS’s first secretary, in parliament. He expressed hope that Bayrou’s government might yield concessions on taxation, public services, and a promised dialogue among “social partners” regarding pension system reforms, while also emphasizing that his party would remain in “the opposition.”
To its allies, the center-left’s position towards Bayrou indicates a troubling fracture within the NFP. “The Parti Socialiste has distanced itself from the left-wing alliance,” LFI caucus leader Mathilde Panot informed journalists soon after the no-confidence motion was defeated. “I’m all for a social conference on the retirement system, but is that worth a non-censure over the [general policy address]? I don’t think so,” remarked Lucie Castets, the NFP’s prime ministerial nominee after the alliance emerged as the largest bloc in last summer’s snap elections, in a message to Faure on January 14, referencing Bayrou’s concession to the PS. Castets concluded her correspondence with a warning: “If you betray the NFP, the left-wing electorate will be furious with you.”
The Parti Socialiste’s stance toward Bayrou has been a focal point of debate in recent weeks. After the collapse of Barnier’s government on December 4, the party leadership entered discussions with Macron and members of the president’s bloc, which gained momentum following Bayrou’s appointment on December 16. Bayrou soon echoed Macron’s previous comments that the next minority government could no longer rely solely on support from the far-right, indicating the necessity of fostering ties with the center left.
The PS’s separation from its partners further intensifies the power struggle within the NFP alliance, predominantly against France Insoumise. Although Faure has been viewed as a proponent of left-wing unity, he has increasingly surrendered to the right-wing segment of his party that opposes any alliance with Jean-Luc Mélenchon and LFI. Conversely, the Mélenchonists push for a robust opposition strategy against the Macronist center, aimed at provoking Macron’s resignation and triggering new presidential elections.
After participating in the mid-December talks with the center, the Écologistes and PCF have largely retreated from this approach. Committed to supporting future no-confidence motions, Écologistes caucus leader Cyrielle Chatelein stated before parliament on Thursday, “In a country where an increasing number of farmers are giving up, where workers can’t sustain themselves on their salaries, where teachers feel neglected, where health workers are exhausted, where environmental defenders are overlooked, and young people are devalued — is it wise to continue with the same policies? No.”
The Parti Socialiste is not yielding favorable outcomes in its rapprochement with the Macronists. A prime minister’s “general policy” speech typically lacks substance, but even by those standards, Bayrou’s January 14 address consisted of little more than platitudes and high-level rhetoric. Apart from a vague commitment to a “social conference” intended to review potential adjustments to Macron’s pension reform from 2023, Bayrou’s promised concessions include reinstating staff cuts in the teaching sector and forgoing the cancellation of some medical reimbursement benefits in social security.
In response to the perception that he had not sufficiently met the Parti Socialiste’s requests in his address, Bayrou was even compelled to send a letter on January 16 to solicit its support. The new Prime Minister assured he would abandon plans to tighten sick leave for public employees and preserve a windfall tax on high-income earners already included in the budget draft carried over from Barnier’s government.
Moreover, any concessions Bayrou has mentioned represent minimal adjustments to a budgetary framework primarily focused on reducing expenditures, coupled with a few exceptional levies to address complaints regarding fiscal injustice. Nevertheless, he has slightly moderated the proposed austerity for the budget of 2025. While Barnier aimed to reduce the deficit to 5 percent of GDP in the upcoming year, his successor is targeting a figure closer to 5.4 percent. France concluded 2024 with a budget deficit of 6.1 percent of GDP, more than double the nominal limit set by the European Union.
For the Parti Socialiste, the pivotal question regarding Bayrou’s sustainability will hinge on the outcome of his intention to revise Macron’s unpopular 2023 pension age increase. In his address on Tuesday, Bayrou sidestepped the party’s call to pause the reform, which gradually increases the retirement age from sixty-two to sixty-four. Instead, he suggested submitting the reform to a fresh round of negotiations between French unions and business advocacy groups — proposing that any resulting suggestions be brought to a parliamentary vote.
This framework significantly deviates from the NFP’s manifesto commitment to fully repeal the reform — and there is little confidence that the upcoming negotiations (which commenced on January 17) will yield substantial modifications. The upcoming discussions essentially grant the employers’ lobby control over any concessions to workers, and labor unions have already voiced skepticism. While Bayrou claims he would accept whatever outcomes result from these talks — such as new exemptions for early-career employees — one condition remains that these should not compromise the budgetary savings derived from raising the retirement age. Bayrou’s maneuver serves as a political stratagem to buy time.
There is a strict limit to the genuine concessions that Bayrou might offer to the Parti Socialiste. Most importantly, he cannot forfeit the backing of the conservative Républicains, who represent a key pillar of his government and hold various ministerial positions despite only having forty-seven MPs in the lower house.
In the period leading up to Bayrou’s address, there was significant concern among the right regarding the direction of the premier’s negotiations with the center-left socialists — with Les Républicains’ leadership even suggesting they might withdraw from his government. However, these apprehensions were largely eased by Bayrou’s speech, which clarified that there would be minimal serious proposals while reaffirming that deficit reduction would remain at the forefront of his administration’s priorities.
Bayrou’s true challenges still lie ahead. Both the Parti Socialiste’s and the far-right Rassemblement National’s positions during this week’s no-confidence motion were rife with political theatrics, and both factions have indicated their potential to support such motions in the future. Ironically, the Parti Socialiste and the far right share nearly identical short-term strategic aims: to showcase their credibility as serious “governing parties,” unbound by the extreme tendencies of their respective ideological spectrums. The Parti Socialiste may struggle to maintain its balance between opposition and the center when the actual budget proposal comes up for discussion later this winter. It could prove simpler to return to the NFP coalition in a more concrete vote concerning budget cuts and reductions in investment.
Meanwhile, the far right has reverted to a stance reminiscent of its position from much of last fall after Le Pen and her allies abstained from the initial NFP no-confidence motion against Barnier in early October. Their decision to ultimately oust Barnier in December stirred tensions within their caucus, raising concerns that the far-right may jeopardize the trust it has painstakingly established among traditional conservative voters. It remains uncertain whether Le Pen will adopt a similar approach in the future, particularly if Bayrou feels compelled to employ “49.3” to push through his government’s budget proposals. Should Le Pen secure comparable concessions to those obtained from Barnier last fall, her party may choose to grant Bayrou a reprieve.
Although the far right has largely remained in the background while the new premier focused on appeasing the Parti Socialiste, Bayrou has not ruled out the possibility of keeping Le Pen’s tacit support. A significant personnel decision was made to ensure Les Républicains remained involved in his government, and Bayrou’s reappointment of hardliner Bruno Retailleau as interior minister was also an indication towards the far right on immigration and policing issues. On January 14, Bayrou tersely remarked that his government’s “duty is to implement a policy of control, regulation, and deportation against those whose presence, due to their sheer number, threatens national cohesion.”
While the Parti Socialiste may be undergoing a transformation, Bayrou’s attempts to govern bear a striking resemblance to the prior failed efforts from late 2024. Public confidence is also lackluster; opinion polls indicate that the French populace does not expect Bayrou to endure in his new role for long. In the meantime, a lingering strategic question permeates discussions: how to position themselves ahead of a potential dissolution of the National Assembly and another round of snap elections. (IPA Service)
