As we reach the close of 2024 and usher in a new year, it’s a good opportunity to reflect on the past year—its triumphs and tribulations, achievements and setbacks. Such reflection can guide our strategies for the upcoming year. Thoughtful individuals worldwide engage in this practice, and we do as well in this column focused on India and global affairs.
Two pivotal events stood out for me in the past year: the early re-election of Narendra Modi as Prime Minister of India and Donald Trump’s resurgence at the end of the year as he returned to the White House. Modi’s third consecutive term signifies a continuation in India’s foreign policy framework, while Trump’s second act suggests a resurgence of Trumpism in both the U.S. and internationally, though with some differences. Trump’s unpredictability can often yield unexpected shifts in his diplomatic approach, while Modi’s strategy leans toward a mixture of continuity and change, favoring more significant adjustments over mere stability. These themes will warrant further examination in 2025.
Importantly, Trump’s return has already influenced, and will continue to affect, both his allies and adversaries worldwide, prompting them to reevaluate their policies. While Trump might be perceived as controversial in his public statements, he is clear and decisive in his actions. Additionally, the personal rapport between Trump and Modi will be crucial in shaping the India-U.S. relationship, particularly concerning China and Russia. Modi may be encouraged to adopt a firmer stance regarding these nations.
Notably, 2024 witnessed a surge of interest in foreign policy among India’s media, academia, and civil society, an area traditionally dominated by elites. With its growing economy and aspirations for a significant global role, many informed Indians now believe the country is on the verge of becoming a key player in global politics. Historically, leadership focused primarily on domestic management and regional influence, but in 2024, there was a renewed confidence in engaging more broadly on the world stage. Both the Prime Minister and the Foreign Minister expressed India’s willingness to mediate in major conflicts, such as the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, if requested.
India’s foreign policy remains anchored in strategic autonomy as New Delhi responds to ongoing conflicts and global developments, with an expectation of an increasingly multi-polar world. This perspective, championed by the Ministry of External Affairs and supported by commentators and former diplomats, will be tested in 2025 amid the global ramifications of Trumpism. The discourse surrounding foreign policy in India, however, remains surprisingly limited in public and parliamentary debates. While foreign policy is typically a non-partisan issue in many democracies, in India it often becomes contentious due to differing political stances.
Despite Modi’s explicit support for Trump during the 2019 U.S. presidential elections, India-U.S. relations under President Joe Biden have remained steady, with even signs of improvement, largely due to a significant convergence of strategic interests. Conversely, Indian-Russian relations saw a voluntary decline, primarily due to Russia’s poor handling of its invasion of Ukraine and diplomatic failures with the Global West. This situation may have left Russia more dependent on China, while Modi has skillfully maintained friendly relations with both the U.S. and Russia. Nevertheless, this neutral stance may prove increasingly difficult to sustain in the long term.
On the border front, despite numerous negotiations between the Indian and Chinese military, New Delhi has struggled to push back against China’s aggressive territorial claims. Limited success has been achieved in retrieving some patrol and grazing rights in areas like Depsang and Demchock, but the larger issue remains unresolved, with China still occupying 38,000 square kilometers of Indian territory and continuing its ‘string of pearls’ strategy around India.
A significant achievement for India over the past year was its emergence as a genuine voice for the Global South, particularly demonstrated during the G-20 Summit it hosted. India’s incorporation of the African Union into the G-20 was a notable milestone. Additionally, New Delhi held the third virtual Voice of the Global South Summit in August, where Prime Minister Modi hosted the inaugural leaders’ conference. While BRICS offers an alternative platform for the Global South, many nations look to India for strategic guidance, drawn to its unique blend of democracy and development.
Regionally, outcomes have been mixed. Sri Lanka appears to be mending ties with India and moving away from its previous reliance on China. The new president, Anura Dissanayake, despite his leftist background, has shown a pragmatic approach in prioritizing national interests. His first international visit to New Delhi yielded positive results, with the president acknowledging India’s timely support and committing to regional security.
On the other hand, Bangladesh posed challenges due to political turmoil, resulting in violence against Hindu minorities and anti-India sentiment from the current government. This shift came after the former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina sought refuge in India. Meanwhile, Maldives’ President Mohamed Muizzu softened his stance towards India with two visits to New Delhi, despite previously campaigning on an “India Out” platform. Nepal’s relations with India remained stable last year, possibly due to the ongoing instability in its government.
Modi furthered India’s influence with strategic visits to countries such as Poland, Nigeria, Brunei, and Kuwait after significant gaps—the first Indian Prime Minister to visit Poland in 45 years and Kuwait in 43 years. His receptions were warm; Kuwait awarded him the highest civilian honor, and Poland signaled deeper engagement.
However, a notable misstep in 2024 was Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s unfounded accusations against India concerning Khalistani supporters. His dependence on a Sikh political party for his political survival significantly influenced his stance toward India.
In summary, India navigated the complexities of global politics effectively over the past year, achieving notable milestones despite facing several challenges. While the economy’s growth fell short of New Delhi’s targets, it still fared reasonably well overall. In conclusion, 2024 was a year of relative balance for India’s foreign policy.—INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)
New Delhi
1 January 2025
