By Nitya Chakraborty
The BJP’s decisive victory over the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in the Delhi assembly elections is undoubtedly a setback for the opposition INDIA bloc. However, this does not signify the end of AAP or the final chapter for the INDIA bloc, as some national media commentators have suggested. Observers familiar with the sentiment of the Delhi electorate were aware that the upcoming 2025 elections would pose significant challenges for AAP in its effort to fend off the BJP, especially after two full terms of AAP’s governance. The substantial income tax relief in the Union budget for 2025-26, announced just four days before the elections, played a crucial role in influencing voter sentiment, alongside the previous announcement establishing the eighth pay commission for central government employees.
The BJP’s victory was significantly driven by the salaried middle classes in Delhi, who make up the majority of the 1.56 crore electorate. The direct cash benefits provided had an immediate and tangible impact on voter turnout. Nevertheless, the overall vote tally indicates a competitive landscape, as the BJP garnered 45.56 percent of the votes while AAP received 43.57 percent—only a 2 percent difference. In terms of seats, however, BJP won 48 seats compared to AAP’s 22.
Moreover, when combining the votes of AAP and Congress, the INDIA bloc collectively approached nearly 50 percent of the total votes. An alliance would have potentially secured 14 additional seats for the bloc, leading to a narrow victory of 36 seats out of 70 total if an AAP-Congress coalition had been formed. AAP managed to maintain its support among Dalits, the impoverished, and Muslims, as evidenced by constituency-level voting patterns. The election results reveal a significant shift among the middle class from AAP to BJP, while traditionally poorer voters remained loyal to AAP and Congress.
The key takeaway is that both AAP and Congress failed to effectively strategize around forming an alliance prior to the assembly elections. They should have discussed seat-sharing arrangements in light of the BJP’s recent successes in Haryana and Maharashtra. Moving forward, AAP and Congress must conduct an objective assessment of the situation on the ground to prepare effectively for the next electoral round against the BJP. AAP has acknowledged its defeat, with Arvind Kejriwal vowing to serve as a responsible opposition—a commendable democratic approach within a vibrant parliamentary framework.
Now, let’s turn our attention to the evolving political scenario. Previously, AAP ruled in two states: Delhi and Punjab. With the loss of Delhi, Punjab now becomes the focal point of BJP’s attention in Northern India, as well as Bihar in the east, both of which are set to hold elections later this year. The AAP government in Punjab might face instability, reflecting similarities in voting patterns observed in Delhi. Following its removal from power by AAP in Punjab’s last elections, the Congress is poised to actively regroup and challenge the AAP in the state. In turn, the BJP is likely to seek new alliances to fortify its presence while confronting both AAP and Congress. This sets the stage for a triangular contest in the Punjab electoral landscape, where, much like Delhi, the two INDIA bloc partners will once again be rivals. However, unlike Delhi, BJP’s influence in Punjab is comparatively minimal, making AAP and Congress the primary contenders in the upcoming elections.
Bihar’s assembly elections also hold paramount significance for the INDIA bloc. It is essential to forge a coherent electoral alliance within the Mahagathbandhan, spearheaded by RJD, to confront the NDA government led by Nitish Kumar in the end-of-year elections. Winning in Bihar is of utmost importance for the INDIA bloc; thus, the Congress must approach this alliance with a spirit of collaboration, recognizing its demand for more seats relative to its on-ground presence. To facilitate this, RJD and Congress should initiate electoral discussions well ahead of time.
With CPI(ML)-L commanding a significant working-class base in Bihar, a robust alliance among the INDIA bloc—comprising RJD, Congress, and the leftist parties (CPI, CPI(M), CPI(ML)-L)—is achievable. CPI(ML)-L, having conquered 12 seats in the 2020 state elections from just 19 contested, merits allocation of more seats in the forthcoming 2025 polls. RJD bears the responsibility to ensure this occurs. Securing victories in Bihar is vital for the INDIA bloc to curb the BJP’s momentum following its successful electoral campaigns in Haryana, Maharashtra, and Delhi.
For BJP, the dawn of 2025 has presented renewed confidence after electoral triumphs in the Maharashtra and Haryana assembly elections and overshadowing the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh’s assembly by-polls. February has witnessed this confidence grow further following their Delhi assembly win and a resounding victory in the Milkipur assembly seat in Uttar Pradesh, where they triumphed over Samajwadi Party by a substantial margin of 62,000 votes. The BJP leadership and Prime Minister Narendra Modi have demonstrated remarkable recovery within a mere six to eight months following their prior disappointing performance in the Lok Sabha elections, announced on June 4, 2024.
In elections, both wins and losses are commonplace, and every combination must draw pertinent lessons from their defeats, identify underlying issues, and formulate corrective action. The BJP took the initiative for course correction seriously post its unsuccessful performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, where they experienced a decrease in seats from 303 in 2019 to 240. The initial uncertainty following the formation of the third NDA government under Narendra Modi, where BJP relied on support from allies like JD(U) and TDP, appears to have subsided. Modi has reassured his partners of the BJP’s control, signaling improved political stability ahead.
While BJP remains proactive and adaptive in adjusting its political and electoral strategies to counter the INDIA bloc, the latter appears to be caught in a state of lethargy. Leadership within the INDIA bloc has been relatively dormant, with no comprehensive meetings of its leaders taking place since the Lok Sabha elections. As the largest opposition entity in the INDIA bloc, the Congress must assume the leadership role in continuously engaging with its allies to confront the emerging challenges posed by the Modi administration and BJP. Merely coordinating during parliamentary sessions is inadequate.
With the Delhi assembly elections behind us and upcoming elections scheduled for later this year, it is imperative for INDIA bloc parties to convene and conduct a thorough evaluation of the current political climate, updating their strategies accordingly. The INDIA bloc must act decisively in 2025 under new leadership, which could either be centralized or dual. West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee emerges as a prime candidate to lead the INDIA bloc. Alternatively, a dual leadership approach could see M.K. Stalin, Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu, share the responsibilities. Mamata has firmly established herself as a formidable political leader capable of challenging the BJP, evidenced by her party’s sweeping victories in the ten recent assembly constituencies after the Lok Sabha elections, even defeating the BJP in its two strongholds. She possesses the political bandwidth to coordinate and advance the AAP’s objectives in 2025.
Similarly, M.K. Stalin is well-positioned to play a leadership role within the INDIA bloc, having effectively run a successful coalition government in Tamil Nadu comprising various bloc parties. With his own assembly elections not scheduled until 2026, he too offers a sense of security and can foster relationships with non-aligned part ies such as YSRCP and BJD. His acceptability across INDIA bloc parties is noteworthy. Both Mamata and Stalin are exceptionally suited to reinvigorate the INDIA bloc’s operations.
The recent assembly elections and bypolls have unveiled both newcomers and seasoned leaders within the INDIA bloc who can significantly contribute to intensifying efforts against the BJP. Priyanka Gandhi’s recent entry into the Lok Sabha through a bypoll in Wayanad, Kerala, positions her as a valuable asset for the INDIA bloc in the forthcoming elections. She has proactively highlighted pressing issues, particularly those affecting women, advocating for cash transfers, and can emerge as a key leader within the bloc as the BJP intensifies its focus on women’s issues, necessitating a concerted response from the INDIA bloc.
Additionally, two other leaders have proven their mettle in the last electoral round: Hemant Soren, Chief Minister of Jharkhand, and Dipankar Bhattacharya, general secretary of CPI(ML)-Liberation. Hemant Soren has demonstrated strategic prowess by successfully challenging the BJP in Jharkhand’s tribal belt, despite the formidable rivalry posed by the BJP and RSS, thereby establishing himself as a leading voice for tribal rights nationwide.
Conversely, Dipankar Bhattacharya has proven effective, facilitating significant wins for CPI(ML)-L in the Lok Sabha and subsequent assembly bypolls. His leadership has greatly assisted the INDIA bloc’s effectiveness in both Bihar and Jharkhand against the BJP. Bhattacharya can play an instrumental role for the nationwide front against the BJP.
It is imperative for the INDIA bloc parties to convene a meeting soon to deliberate on the new leadership trajectory. Rahul Gandhi retains the position of Leader of the Opposition and Congress, as the largest constituent of the INDIA bloc, must assert its presence. The topic of a Prime Ministerial candidate is currently irrelevant given that the next Lok Sabha elections are not scheduled until 2029. This discussion can occur either before or after these elections to gauge ground realities. In the meantime, numerous state assembly elections must be addressed, necessitating a cohesive strategy from the INDIA bloc. The campaign against the BJP must encompass all fronts, both within Parliament and beyond. Rahul can spearhead the bloc’s efforts in Parliament, while the Mamata-Stalin partnership should invigorate the bloc’s activities in 2025 and beyond. (IPA Service)
