By Asad Mirza
The collapse of the Assad regime in Syria has sparked tensions among its former allies, including Iran, Turkey, and Russia. Meanwhile, Israel appears to have gained leverage, buoyed by American support, which may spell trouble for the region.
In the remarkable days leading up to the Syrian President’s escape to Russia, the world has been captivated by unfolding events. With thousands attempting to return to Syria after years abroad, it seems that the solution to the refugee crisis that displaced millions might simply be the ousting of a dictator. Paradoxically, many nations have recently sought to normalize relations with Assad; Italy even resumed its diplomatic representation in Damascus.
Nonetheless, a reduced Iranian influence in Syria could significantly reshape the geopolitical dynamics of the Middle East, impacting power structures and alliances.
Regional players, including Iran, Turkey, and the Gulf states, may vie for influence during Syria’s transitional phase, looking to secure their interests. Saudi Arabia and the UAE might enhance their positions by engaging with various Syrian factions and participating in reconstruction efforts to counterbalance Turkish and Iranian ambitions.
Moreover, the chaos in Syria could exacerbate sectarian divides as Sunni Arab states may strive to curb Iranian resurgence, while extremist factions such as ISIS could attempt to reinstate their operational capacities in the area.
The Syrian conflict has become a critical vulnerability for the Iranian axis. For over four decades, the Assad regime has been an ally of the Islamic Republic, relying on Tehran’s assistance to suppress the uprising. Hezbollah’s involvement in Syria transformed it from a Lebanese political entity into an Iranian proxy force. However, its extensive military engagement in Syria exposed it to Israeli intelligence and attacks.
Israel’s recent military operations have significantly weakened Hezbollah, dismantling its leadership and capabilities. Although Iran had initially bolstered its influence by integrating another Arab capital under its control, supporting Assad has also drained its resources and revealed its weaknesses.
Going forward, Israel may adopt a more aggressive strategy against Iran-linked groups in the region, including those based in Syria, aiming to prevent Tehran from re-establishing its dominion along Israel’s northern border.
Syria faces a multitude of challenges, including widespread concerns about the future envisioned by the rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the potential for violent retribution after decades of authoritarianism, and the risk of ISIS resurgent. The Syrian populace is acutely aware of these threats, emphasizing the urgent need to end foreign interference, though regional stakeholders are unlikely to exercise restraint.
Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, has accused the United States, Israel, and Turkey of conspiring to topple Assad’s regime, framing it as part of a collaborative “American-Zionist” agenda. These events vividly illustrate the intricate geopolitical landscape of the region.
Khamenei has underscored the necessity of assisting Syria during this tumultuous period. The situation remains fraught as these allegations unfold. Despite years of cooperation—especially regarding Turkey’s economic support to mitigate international sanctions on Iran—tensions between Iran and Turkey appear to be fraying.
Turkey has long supported anti-Assad factions, including HTS, which played a significant role in the campaign against Damascus. Turkey’s primary concern in Syria has been to establish a buffer zone against Kurdish entities in the north.
In a post-Assad landscape, Turkey’s ultimate aim is to thwart any Kurdish aspirations within a reformed Syrian government.
Henri J. Barkey, an adjunct senior fellow for Middle East studies at the US Council on Foreign Relations, noted that Turkey’s pivotal objective in Syria is to eliminate the Syrian Kurdish group, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
Barkey emphasized Turkey’s fears that “Syrian Kurds might negotiate an arrangement with the central government in Damascus for autonomous status, akin to what Iraqi Kurds achieved after the Iraq War.”
For Iran, maintaining the Assad regime is crucial for projecting power in the Middle East; however, as Turkey strengthens its influence, Iran’s regional sway is diminishing.
Ahmad Vakhshiteh, a senior lecturer at RUDN University in Moscow, stated that the recent shifts in Syria favor Turkey. He indicated that Ankara might take advantage of Tehran’s current vulnerabilities to further its complex geopolitical ambitions, including establishing a land corridor to connect the landlocked Azerbaijani exclave of Nakhchivan with Azerbaijan. This corridor would border both Turkey and Iran, and Turkey supports it as a means to link with Turkic regions. Iran, however, fears that such a corridor could obstruct its access to Armenia.
For years, Turkey has played a vital role in aiding Iran to bypass international sanctions related to its nuclear program. Alongside the UAE, Turkey has facilitated trade and provided crucial supplies to Iran.
Trade data from Iran’s customs authority show that the trade volume between Turkey and Iran reached around $10 billion in the first ten months of this year, with plans to triple that amount within five years. However, rising tensions could jeopardize this vital economic relationship.
In this context, the Western alliance, led by the US and European nations, may enhance its strategic engagement at some point, through diplomatic coordination and measured interventions.
This approach would help the West achieve its dual objectives: preventing the resurgence of non-state militant groups and curtailing Russian and Iranian expansion in the Mediterranean.
Overall, the evolving situation in Syria promises to be complex. Assad managed to secure cooperation with Turkish, Iranian, and certain Arab states by curtailing Israeli military advances into a buffer zone. With that goal now fulfilled, Israel may intensify its efforts to assert control over critical regions, hinting at a broader strategy for the area in the near future. (IPA Service)
