JERUSALEM, Feb 17: When Hamas threatened to halt the anticipated release of three Israeli hostages last week, U.S. President Donald Trump entered the fray with an unexpected ultimatum.
Speaking from the Oval Office, Trump demanded that Hamas release all of the more than 70 hostages by noon on Saturday, warning that “all hell is going to break loose” if they failed to comply.
“They’ll find out what I mean. Saturday at 12,” Trump asserted. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu echoed Trump’s sentiments, suggesting that the entire agreement could be jeopardized.
Ultimately, Hamas proceeded with the release of the three hostages as planned. In response, Netanyahu released a significant number of Palestinian prisoners, and Trump’s deadline passed with no additional hostage releases.
This incident is just one example of Trump’s approach to Middle East diplomacy—a landscape characterized by grand pronouncements, erratic unpredictability, and mixed outcomes.
In certain instances, this strategy has yielded substantial achievements, most notably the 2020 Abraham Accords, which established relations between Israel and four Arab nations. However, it has also risked further destabilizing an already volatile region and has made little progress in resolving the long-standing Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Here are some insights from Trump’s early month in office:
A surprising Gaza proposal
Trump’s reputation is rooted in his tough rhetoric, threats, and unexpected initiatives intended to disrupt the status quo.
His most audacious and controversial proposal thus far involves the relocation of all 2 million residents of Gaza, after which the U.S. would “take ownership” and oversee a lengthy reconstruction process. He specified that Palestinians would not be allowed to return—this is a nightmare scenario for a people who still grieve the mass displacement during Israel’s creation 76 years ago. The Palestinians have outright rejected this plan.
Trump has not clarified how this plan would be enacted, where Palestinians would go, who would accept them, or who would finance the process. Human rights advocates and international law experts have denounced it as potentially constituting a war crime.
It remains unclear whether the proposal is a serious initiative or merely a tactic to jolt regional players into negotiations. However, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu expressed support, stating it “is right on the dot. It’s the right plan.”
Strong support from Israelis
If Israel were part of the United States, it would be one of the country’s staunchest supporters in presidential politics. Polls from last November indicated that Israelis overwhelmingly preferred Trump over Democratic nominee Kamala Harris.
This support has remained steadfast. Earlier this month, Netanyahu was welcomed as the first foreign leader to see Trump in the White House, where Trump revealed his Gaza strategy.
Once dismissed as radical by Israel’s ultranationalist fringe, the suggestion of mass Palestinian relocation has now gained traction and acceptance among Israeli leadership since Trump proposed it.
Since then, Israelis appear to be aligning their strategies with Trump’s. During last week’s hostage situation, Netanyahu frequently conferred with American officials.
While hosting U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Netanyahu praised Trump as “the greatest friend that Israel has ever had” in the White House, reaffirming that both nations are united “shoulder to shoulder” in facing adversary Iran and collaborating on a post-war Gaza strategy. He even adopted Trump’s threatening language about unleashing “the gates of hell” on Hamas if remaining hostages are not released. Nonetheless, he has continued ceasefire discussions, encouraged by American intervention.
Arab concerns
America’s closest Arab allies have rejected Trump’s proposals, viewing them as a fundamental threat to both the Palestinian cause and their own stability. There are also concerns about the possibility of losing vital American aid.
King Abdullah II of Jordan, who was seen as a potential haven for displaced Palestinians, gently dismissed Trump’s plan during a White House visit last week. Similarly, Egypt, which shares a border with Gaza, has ruled out accepting any displaced Palestinians.
A key test for Trump is Rubio’s upcoming visit to Saudi Arabia.
Both Trump and Netanyahu aim to establish full diplomatic ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia. However, the Saudi leadership opposes the mass relocation of Palestinians from Gaza and insists on a clear path to Palestinian independence as part of any normalization agreement with Israel. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s criticism of Israel’s actions as “genocide” in Gaza may also complicate negotiations.
Contemplating the post-war scenario
Trump’s plans following the war have sent tremors throughout the region.
Supporting the forced expulsion of millions of Palestinians could endanger U.S. allies.
Countries like the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Egypt have populations that are sympathetic to the Palestinian plight, making alignment with such a plan risky and potentially causing internal unrest. Egypt has cautioned that it could jeopardize its longstanding peace treaty with Israel, which has been a cornerstone of regional stability for nearly fifty years.
Simultaneously, Trump’s proposals seem to have accelerated the urgency for action. Egypt is now reportedly working on its own post-war Gaza plan and is scheduled to host an Arab summit later this month.
Rubio has countered that if others disapprove of American proposals, they should offer alternatives. “It may have shocked and surprised many, but what cannot continue is the same cycle where we repeat over and over again and wind up in the exact same place,” he stated.
From the perspective of Arab nations, America’s continued support for Israel’s occupation of land the Palestinians seek for a future state, including settlement expansions and attempts to impose military solutions, is viewed as an approach that has failed for decades and is set to escalate under Trump’s administration.
More unpredictability on the horizon
Trump’s Middle East team, led by envoy Steve Witkoff, played a significant role in negotiating the current six-week ceasefire, even before Trump officially took office.
This ceasefire phase is nearing its conclusion in two weeks, and Netanyahu has conveyed mixed signals about future actions.
While he has repeatedly warned of resuming military action, influenced by hardline supporters within his coalition, he has also committed to continuing discussions aimed at reaching a second stage that could ultimately bring an end to the conflict.
It is uncertain which direction he and his unpredictable ally in the White House will choose. (AP)
