DUBAI, Jan 17: Recent satellite images analyzed by The Associated Press reveal that a clandestine airstrip being constructed on a remote Yemeni island is approaching completion, amid a backdrop of a prolonged war that could erupt once more.
The airstrip located on Abd al-Kuri Island, situated in the Indian Ocean near the Gulf of Aden’s entrance, may serve as a significant site for military operations monitoring that region. This is particularly pertinent as commercial shipping through the Gulf and Red Sea—a crucial corridor for cargo and energy transport to Europe—has significantly decreased following assaults by Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthi rebels. The region has also witnessed increasing arms smuggling from Iran to these rebels.
It is speculated that the United Arab Emirates is behind the construction of the runway, a nation long believed to be amplifying its military footprint in the area while supporting a Saudi-led campaign against the Houthis.
Although the Houthis have linked their offensive to the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza, analysts are concerned that a ceasefire in that region may not suffice to deter the rebels, who have garnered global attention. In the meantime, the Houthis have persistently targeted Israel and U.S. warships in the Red Sea, provoking fears that one of their attacks could inadvertently endanger American servicemen.
A miscalculation on the battlefield by the various parties contesting Yemen, fresh lethal strikes against Israel, or a severe assault on a U.S. warship could rapidly disrupt the fragile calm in the nation. The approach of President-elect Donald Trump, who is set to be inaugurated on Monday, toward this increasingly bold Houthi faction remains uncertain.
“The Houthis thrive on conflict—war benefits them,” remarked Wolf-Christian Paes, a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies who specializes in Yemen. “Finally, they can fulfill their infamous slogan, which calls for Death to America and death to the Jews. They view themselves as engaged in a grand struggle against their most significant foes, and from their perspective, they are succeeding.”
Satellite imagery reveals airstrip nearing completion
Satellite pictures taken on January 7 by Planet Labs PBC for the AP show heavy machinery and trucks at the north-south runway being constructed on Abd al-Kuri, which measures approximately 35 kilometers (21 miles) in length and about 5 kilometers (3 miles) at its widest point.
The runway has been surfaced, with designation numbers “18” and “36” visible at each end. As per the images from January 7, a segment of the 2.4-kilometer (1.5-mile) runway, which is 45 meters (150 feet) wide, was still unfinished. Trucks were observed grading and laying asphalt over the remaining 290-meter (950-foot) section.
Once operational, the runway will accommodate private jets and other smaller aircraft, though it may be insufficient for the largest commercial aircraft or heavy bombers based on its dimensions.
Despite being within range of Houthi drones and missiles, Abd al-Kuri’s distance from mainland Yemen indicates “there’s no risk of the Houthis loading onto a pickup truck to capture it,” said Yemen analyst Mohammed al-Basha from the Basha Report risk advisory firm.
The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), based in Montreal, indicated that it had no data regarding the airstrip on Abd al-Kuri, according to spokesman William Raillant-Clark. Yemen, as an ICAO member, is expected to provide information about its airfields. Nearby Socotra Island already has an official airport recognized by the ICAO.
This isn’t the only airstrip experiencing expansion in recent times. Mocha, on the Red Sea, has seen improvement projects at its airport, allowing larger aircraft to land. Local authorities credit this initiative to the UAE, which is a federation of seven emirates that includes Abu Dhabi and Dubai. This airfield follows a similar north-south flight path as the runway at Abd al-Kuri and is about the same length.
Additional satellite images from Planet Labs depict yet another unidentified runway under construction south of Mocha near Dhubab, located in Yemen’s Taiz governorate. An image captured by Planet for the AP on Thursday showed the runway completed, although without any markings.
A strategic location in a war-torn nation
Abd al-Kuri is part of the Socotra Archipelago, positioned just 95 kilometers (60 miles) from Africa and roughly 400 kilometers (250 miles) from Yemen. During the later years of the Cold War, the archipelago occasionally accommodated Soviet warships due to its strategic significance.
In recent years, the island has come under the administration of Yemen’s Southern Transitional Council, which advocates for the country to revert back to its former division between the north and south, a situation that existed during the Cold War. The UAE has supported and supplied this council in the ongoing Saudi-led conflict against the Houthis, who took control of Yemen’s capital, Sanaa, in 2014.
The UAE also has a significant presence in logistics and trade, hosting the expansive Jebel Ali port in Dubai, and previously constructed a military base in Eritrea, which was later dismantled, and attempted to establish an airstrip on Mayun Island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.
Contrasting with those former attempts, it appears that the Emiratis will likely commence operations at the Abd al-Kuri airstrip—evidence includes piles of dirt near the runway spelling out “I LOVE UAE” for several months.
Additionally, an Emirati-flagged landing craft was observed near the coastline of Abd al-Kuri in January 2024, with various sightings around Socotra throughout the year, based on data reviewed by AP from MarineTraffic.com. This vessel has been associated with the UAE’s military activities in Yemen.
The UAE has maintained a weekly flight to Socotra from Abu Dhabi, consistently portraying its mission as humanitarian assistance for the archipelago. Regarding the Abd al-Kuri airstrip, the UAE reaffirmed its focus on aid efforts.
“Any UAE presence is based on humanitarian grounds, conducted in partnership with the Yemeni government and local authorities,” stated the Emirati government.
“The UAE is committed to all international initiatives aimed at fostering the Yemeni political process, thereby promoting the security, stability, and prosperity desired by the Yemeni populace.”
Officials from the Southern Transitional Council and Yemen’s exiled government did not respond to multiple inquiries concerning the airstrip. The UAE’s influence over Socotra has previously resulted in tensions, as the Houthis have utilized this to depict Emirati efforts as an attempt at colonization.
“This plan constitutes a serious infringement on Yemeni sovereignty and poses threats to the sovereignty of neighboring countries through the anticipated espionage and sabotage operations it may conduct,” the Houthi-controlled SABA news agency declared in November.
A potential smuggling route along the island
The establishment of a new airport on Abd al-Kuri could furnish a discreet landing site for surveillance missions over Socotra Island. This could play a crucial role in disrupting arms trafficking from Iran to the Houthis, who are currently under a UN arms embargo.
A report submitted to the UN Security Council indicated that a weapons seizure by the U.S. military in January 2024 took place off Socotra, near Abd al-Kuri. This operation, which resulted in the presumed deaths of two U.S. Navy SEALs, involved a traditional dhow allegedly engaged in several smuggling operations on behalf of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard aimed at the Houthis.
Efforts to disrupt this arms supply chain, along with ongoing strikes by the U.S., Israel, and their allies against the Houthis, have likely played a role in the recent reduction of the rebels’ attack frequency. The U.S. and its allies have launched over 260 strikes against the Houthis, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
In the coming week, President Trump will determine the course of this military campaign. He has previously encountered the complexities of combat in Yemen—his first military action in office in 2017 resulted in the death of a Navy SEAL during a raid on a suspected Al-Qaida location, along with the deaths of over a dozen civilians, including an 8-year-old girl.
There is speculation that Trump may reapply the foreign terrorist organization designation on the Houthis that the Biden administration previously revoked, an action supported by the UAE. Marco Rubio, whom Trump has nominated for Secretary of State, emphasized the threats posed by the Houthis during his Senate confirmation hearing alongside discussions regarding Iran and its affiliates.
Any American action could intensify the conflict, even as the Houthi’s elusive leader, Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, indicated Thursday night a willingness to cease attacks should a ceasefire agreement be established in Gaza.
“I foresee little chance for de-escalation with the Houthis in 2025,” noted al-Basha, the Yemen analyst. “The situation in Yemen is extremely fragile. An outbreak of conflict could occur in the coming months. I don’t anticipate the current state of affairs to persist.” (AP)
