India has formally protested to China regarding the establishment of two new counties in Hotan Prefecture, located within the Union Territory of Ladakh, as well as the announcement of a major dam project on the Brahmaputra River. These actions illustrate the increasing complexity in bilateral relations between these two neighboring countries. While India continues to assert its territorial claims and safeguard its interests, these developments reveal the precariousness of the peace and stability that had seemingly been restored after a prolonged four-and-a-half-year border standoff. The intertwined issues of territorial disputes and water security represent significant challenges that both nations must confront to prevent further escalation.
The establishment of the two new counties in Hotan, which China considers part of its Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, has provoked a strong response from New Delhi. India maintains that parts of these counties lie within the Indian Union Territory of Ladakh. The Indian External Affairs Ministry quickly lodged a formal protest, labeling China’s actions as attempts to legitimize its “illegal and forcible occupation” of Indian territory. This response reflects India’s long-standing position on the disputed territories of Aksai Chin and other regions of Ladakh, which have been focal points of tension for decades.
Though these territorial disputes are not novel, the timing of this announcement is particularly noteworthy. It coincided with the resumption of special representatives talks between India and China, following troop disengagement at two friction points, Demchok and Depsang, which had been sources of military standoffs for several years. During these talks, both nations expressed a desire to normalize bilateral relations and emphasize cross-border cooperation. Consequently, the announcement of these counties raises significant concerns about China’s commitment to maintaining stability in the region and its readiness to resolve disputes in a mutually respectful manner. For India, this contradicts the spirit of diplomatic dialogue that has been developed in recent months, especially after the intense military standoff and subsequent agreements designed to reduce tensions. The timing of this announcement, while both countries were engaged in talks regarding border resolution, raises alarms regarding the sincerity of China’s intentions to de-escalate tensions.
Adding to the complexity of the already delicate relationship is China’s proposed mega-dam project on the Brahmaputra River. The Brahmaputra is essential for millions in India, particularly in Assam and Arunachal Pradesh, as well as in Bangladesh. Any alterations to its flow could have dire environmental and economic repercussions. Constructing a dam of this magnitude in the upper river could significantly affect downstream water flow, jeopardizing agricultural and drinking water supplies in northeastern India. The concerns span beyond just the anticipated decrease in water flow; the dam could also have downstream ecological impacts affecting biodiversity, local ecosystems, and flood management.
India’s response to China’s dam project has been considered and cautious. An External Affairs Ministry spokesperson reiterated India’s commitment to closely monitoring the developments and taking necessary actions to protect its interests. India has advocated for enhanced transparency and consultation with downstream nations regarding such large-scale projects. Similar apprehensions have been voiced concerning Chinese dams on the Mekong and other rivers, where downstream countries have raised alarms about water availability impacts.
All these developments indicate a persistent and escalating challenge in India-China relations. While some progress has been made recently in economic engagement and border management, fundamental tensions over territorial disputes, water security, and broader geopolitical considerations remain. China’s unilateral actions, such as establishing new counties and initiating dam projects, only serve to deepen mistrust and hinder efforts towards achieving long-term peace and stability. India must remain vigilant in safeguarding its interests while engaging in diplomatic dialogue with China.
