By Asad Mirza
As the Biden administration approaches the end of its term next month, it appears poised to exit without achieving a key diplomatic aim: normalising relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, along with a formal US security pact with Saudi Arabia.
The fate of a formal US-Saudi security agreement remains ambiguous, although the Biden administration seems to be negotiating a deal that may not require broader arrangements with Israel to make concessions regarding a Palestinian state.
While the Biden administration is interested in finalising this deal before 20 January 2025, reports from Western media indicate that Riyadh is now seeking a “more modest” agreement that does not hinge on normalising relations with Israel.
According to Reuters, sources suggest that Saudi Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman (MbS) has reiterated the necessity for normalisation with Israel to depend upon Israel’s commitment to fostering an independent Palestinian state, consistent with the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remains keen on achieving normalisation with Saudi Arabia, viewing it as a significant diplomatic milestone and an indicator of broader acceptance in the Arab world. However, Netanyahu is approaching the situation cautiously, as any movement towards a two-state solution could jeopardise his governing coalition, sources indicate.
Consequently, “Riyadh and Washington hope a more modest defence pact could be finalised before President Joe Biden vacates the White House in January,” as reported by sources from Saudi Arabia and the West.
Earlier this year, reports suggested Saudi Arabia was pursuing a defence agreement with the US to gain access to advanced military equipment and a US-supported nuclear initiative in exchange for agreeing to normalise ties with Israel.
However, The Guardian reported in May that the kingdom began advocating for a “more modest” defence pact with the US that would omit the normalisation agreement with Israel due to Israel’s inflexibility regarding an independent Palestinian state.
Last week, US President Joe Biden stated that the ceasefire in Lebanon moves the US closer to its vision for a “more integrated” West Asia, which includes the normalisation of ties between Arab nations and Israel.
“I commend the courageous choice made by the leaders of Lebanon and Israel to cease hostilities. It serves as a reminder that peace is attainable,” the president added.
President Biden further expressed that the US is ready to mediate a peace agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia that will encompass “a credible pathway for establishing a Palestinian state.”
A comprehensive US-Saudi treaty would require approval from the US Senate with a two-thirds majority—this scenario would be unlikely without Riyadh first recognising Israel, the sources noted.
The current discussions are focused on enhancing joint military exercises to tackle regional threats, primarily from Iran. The initiative would encourage partnerships between US and Saudi defence companies while ensuring that collaboration with China is restricted, according to the sources.
The agreement is expected to promote Saudi investment in advanced technologies, particularly in drone defence systems. The US plans to increase its presence in Riyadh through training, logistical support, and cyber security measures, with the possibility of deploying a Patriot missile battalion to bolster missile defence and integrated deterrence.
However, it wouldn’t constitute a binding mutual defence treaty, which would obligate US forces to safeguard the world’s largest oil exporter in the event of foreign aggression.
The scenario becomes even more complex with Donald Trump’s return to the White House. Although Trump’s proposal for addressing the Israeli-Palestinian conflict does not include provisions for Palestinian statehood, he maintains a close relationship with the Saudi crown prince.
Concerns arise among Palestinian and some Arab officials that Trump and his son-in-law Jared Kushner—the architect behind the “Deal of the Century” and also a close ally of the crown prince—might ultimately influence him to endorse the plan.
How MbS reconciles Saudi priorities with this evolving diplomatic landscape could be crucial, shaping both his leadership and the future of the peace process, according to diplomats.
The existing US administration has not dismissed the possibility of achieving security guarantees before Biden’s departure in January, but several hurdles persist. One of these is the timing required to conclude a deal.
US officials remain aware that the kingdom still seeks to formalise the guarantees it desires, particularly for access to more sophisticated weaponry, but it is uncertain whether it wishes to finalize this under Biden or wait for Trump, the sources say.
Critics of any agreement between Saudi Arabia and the US argue that the US has already contributed to a moral hazard by supplying the Saudi Arabia-UAE coalition during its initial 2015 Operation Decisive Storm aerial campaign in Yemen, thus becoming complicit in the deaths of thousands of civilians.
In an opinion piece for thehill.com, Alex Little asserts that Saudi Arabia faces no existential threats to its sovereignty, given the absence of a true regional hegemon in the Middle East. Regional stability is one of Washington’s main justifications for its dealings with Riyadh. Yet, Saudi Arabia has been involved in numerous conflict areas and geopolitical tensions throughout the Middle East. Moreover, arms provided to Saudi Arabia have a track record of falling into the hands of adversaries, including Al Qaeda and Iran. Additionally, corruption and lack of transparency within Saudi defence sectors remain significant issues.
Little further contends that mismanagement of military aid, coupled with the dedication of defence resources that Saudi Arabia would require to enhance its own security, could detract from American strategic interests in higher-priority regions, notably the Indo-Pacific.
Fears regarding China’s potential to replace the US as the security guarantor in the Middle East are unfounded, as China has minimal capacity to project military power there and generally opposes military interventions, alliances, and the establishment of bases.
Another dilemma MbS faces is the domestic and broader Islamic world’s reaction to potential normalisation of relations with Israel, which could negatively affect his standing within the kingdom and the region.
While the Saudi leadership strongly endorses Palestinian statehood, it remains uncertain how the crown prince would react if Trump reintroduces the plan he proposed in 2020 to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. (IPA Service)
