NEW DELHI, Dec 28: The Indian steel industry, facing challenges due to rising imports, is closely monitoring developments in 2025 to protect its interests while pursuing its ambitious goal of achieving a production capacity of 300 million tonnes amid unstable raw material prices.
Another significant hurdle will be the acceleration of efforts to adopt environmentally friendly manufacturing processes as the government pushes for green steel production in response to global initiatives aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions in sectors that struggle to decarbonize.
Government support will be crucial as the industry seeks to expand its manufacturing capacity to 300 million tonnes per annum (MnTPA) by 2030. This expansion will require approximately Rs 10 lakh crore in investments to add the remaining 120 MnT capacity needed to meet the target.
The Ministry of Steel highlighted that India continues to be a net importer of steel, with imports between April and September FY25 significantly surpassing exports. During this period, imports surged by over 41% to 4.70 million tonnes from 3.33 million tonnes in the comparable period of the previous fiscal year. Exports, on the other hand, plummeted by 36% to 2.31 million tonnes from 3.60 million tonnes in April-September FY24, according to official data.
The ministry noted that the industry is increasingly seeking protection against low-cost imports from countries like China, either directly or via nations such as Vietnam. The global market also reflects a trend toward safeguarding domestic industries, with the EU recently imposing anti-dumping duties on cold and hot rolled stainless steel. Similarly, Brazil, Mexico, and the US have introduced duties to protect their local markets.
On December 2, the steel ministry discussed the possibility of a 25% safeguard duty on select steel products with the commerce department. Both Steel Minister HD Kumaraswamy and Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal attended the meeting.
Additionally, the Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR), under the Commerce Ministry, has launched an investigation into a noticeable increase in imports of specific steel flat products following a complaint from the Indian Steel Association (ISA), which represents major players like Tata Steel, JSW Steel, AMNS India, Jindal Steel and Power, and Steel Authority of India Ltd (SAIL).
Industry representatives noted that out of a total of 5.7 million tonnes of steel imported by India from April to November 2025, about 79% originated from China, Japan, and Korea.
The influx of imports has led to a significant drop in steel product prices, particularly in the flat segment, where rapid capacity expansions have occurred recently, alongside rising inventory levels.
Despite these challenges, the industry made progress in 2024, which it aims to further in 2025.
India’s crude steel capacity is projected to rise to 180 million tonnes in 2024, up from 164 million tonnes in 2023. Production is expected to increase to 146 million tonnes in 2024, compared to 130 million tonnes in 2023, while consumption is likely to reach 145 million tonnes, rising from 140 million tonnes in 2023.
For 2025, the industry anticipates a capacity of 195 million tonnes, production of 158 million tonnes, and consumption of 155 million tonnes.
The sector is looking for policy support regarding the production and import of raw materials, including fiscal incentives, as it faced market challenges due to lower steel prices amid high input costs in 2024.
Coking coal prices have risen from USD 200 per tonne at the end of the second quarter (July-September FY25) to USD 225 per tonne in December, while iron ore prices increased from USD 90 per tonne to USD 100 per tonne, as per market research firm BigMint.
In December, the government also introduced guidelines for green steel to encourage clean manufacturing practices and the adoption of alternative raw materials. This initiative is expected to benefit domestic producers in light of the European Union’s proposed anti-emission measure, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which discourages the import of steel produced through non-sustainable methods.
Steel manufacturers need to accelerate their decarbonization efforts, as most of their production may not qualify for even a three-star rating under the minimum CO2 emission standards, as indicated by Anil Chaudhary, Chair of the Minerals and Metals Committee at PHDCCI.
In response to the government’s push toward green steel, industry leaders have emphasized the urgent need to enhance energy efficiency, reduce emissions from blast furnaces through alternative fuels and carbon capture technologies, and transition to cleaner gas-based methods through coal gasification, according to Atanu Mukherjee, CEO and President of Dastur Energy.
CII noted that the slow adoption of green steel in India could pose challenges for future industry development.
Looking ahead to 2025, Ritabrata Ghosh, Vice President and Sector Head of Corporate Ratings at Icra, indicated that the industry’s capacity utilization may fall below 80% for the first time in four years.
Meanwhile, the stainless steel sector is urging the government to introduce a dedicated policy to address its unique concerns, with the intention of increasing capacity utilization beyond the current 60% and contributing to long-term economic and industrial development, according to Anubhav Kathuria, Director at Synergy Steels.
In 2025, the industry aims to drive demand for stainless steel in sustainable urban development, water infrastructure, and smart city initiatives, as noted by Rajamani Krishnamurti, President of the Indian Stainless Steel Development Association (ISSDA). (PTI)
