By Asad Mirza
The sudden downfall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria at the hands of rebel forces this past weekend could have significant ramifications for Syria, as well as for global and regional powers and their alliances. This event may echo previous occurrences seen in Iraq, driven by Western intervention.
In the last two weeks, rebel forces spearheaded by the Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) launched a swift offensive throughout Syria, capturing major cities along their path. The faction successfully took the capital Damascus over the weekend (7 December), forcing President Bashar al-Assad to seek refuge in Russia.
The demise of Assad was met with caution by Western nations, who are apprehensive about the possibility of increased violence and a power vacuum in Syria amidst a disordered leadership transition. Nonetheless, Western powers may themselves make choices that could plunge Syria further into chaos.
This was illustrated when despite American president-elect Donald Trump asserting via social media that “It’s NOT our war,” the Biden administration and Israel initiated airstrikes aimed at eliminating suspected chemical weapon caches in Syria. This situation is reminiscent of the events in Iraq, with a strong likelihood that they could replicate in the future.
The US Central Command (CENTCOM) reported conducting strikes on more than 75 targets, including leaders and camps associated with ISIS, to prevent the group from taking advantage of the disorder that follows Assad’s ousting.
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar announced on Monday that Israel targeted suspected chemical weapons facilities in Syria, declaring that the operations aimed to prevent these weapons from being seized by adversaries. Al Jazeera noted Israel executed 480 airstrikes over two days (9-10 December) across Syria.
In parallel, Israeli forces have advanced into the buffer zone at the edge of the annexed Golan Heights. This has been a longstanding Israeli objective; strategically, controlling the Golan Heights poses potential threats to Israel. The distance from the western Golan to key cities like Haifa and Acre is merely about 60 miles, absent significant geographical barriers. A UN spokesman condemned this as a “violation” of the 1974 disengagement agreement between Israel and Syria. Furthermore, Israel’s military actions in Syria may align with a pro-Western agenda intended to weaken the rebels from the outset.
The pressing question remains: what right do the US and Israel have to bomb Syria, a sovereign nation? They lack a UN mandate or the broad support of other Western nations. Thus, how can they assume the role of international enforcers?
At the geopolitical level, the Syrian narrative is far from concluded; in fact, it is just beginning. Following the installation of any interim government, Western powers, spearheaded by the US and Israel, are likely to continue meddling in Syria’s political dynamics while undermining its defense capabilities under the pretext of combating ISIS or al-Qaeda. Meanwhile, old allies of Syria, Russia and Iran, will look to forge stronger ties with the new government. Presently, Al Jolani, aka Sharra, has expressed hostility towards Iran, but geopolitical realities and pressure from Iranian proxies in Syria may prompt him to reconsider this stance.
For now, the end of the Assad dynasty after more than 50 years in power has immediate global implications, as Russia and Iran are perceived as “losers” following the ousting of the Syrian dictator, while the US, Turkey, and Israel emerge as significant beneficiaries of the regime change.
Europe might also find itself benefitting from the regime change in Syria, potentially resulting in fewer displaced refugees entering the continent—a situation that has exacerbated anti-immigrant sentiments and the rise of populist right-wing parties in recent years, accompanied by a surge in Islamophobia.
The major immediate geopolitical “winners” include Israel and Turkey, with the former seeing its adversary Iran weakened further due to Assad’s downfall, while Ankara could ascend as “the most influential” foreign presence in the new political landscape of Syria.
Israel’s view of Assad’s fall as beneficial relates to its ongoing struggle against Iranian influence, as Iran has utilized Syria as a supply route for its ally, Hezbollah, in Lebanon. Israel has aimed to severely undermine this supply chain through its military operations against Iranian proxies in Lebanon and Gaza.
Additionally, Russia is likely anxious about the degree of influence and goodwill it can anticipate from a new Syrian leadership. Moscow recognizes the necessity of maintaining a friendly relationship with the upcoming government, particularly as it operates military bases in Hmeimim and Tartus that grant it access to the Mediterranean.
According to Reuters, citing Russian news organizations, while rebel forces have assured the Kremlin of their commitment to safeguarding Russian military installations and diplomatic missions in Syria, the long-term security of Russia’s military presence in Syria is anything but assured.
The recent developments over the last fortnight have taken many by surprise and might resemble events from the Arab Spring era. Similar to the Arab Spring, this uprising began with a simple act of rebellion. A young boy, a spray can, and a wall set the stage. However, the subsequent events would alter the trajectory of history, leaving a country in ruins and a dictator on the brink. This is the tale of Mouawiya Syasneh, a 14-year-old whose graffiti ignited the Syrian Civil War. How did a teenager instigate a revolution, and what is Syria’s current status?
Let’s rewind to 2011, in the dusty streets of Daraa in southern Syria. Alex Croft, in an article published in The Independent, paints a picture of Mouawiya Syasneh and his friends as typical teenagers—curious, mischievous, and disenchanted with their surroundings. Yet, Syria was anything but typical. It was a nation under a tyrannical regime, where dissent was perilous and maintaining silence equated to survival. Armed with a mere spray can, Mouawiya left a defiant message on a school wall, warning, ‘Ejakel door, yadoctor,’ translating to ‘Now it’s your turn, Doctor,’ addressing President Bashar al-Assad, an ophthalmologist by trade.
The graffiti transcended being just a mere joke; it sparked an insurrection against a regime that had oppressed Syria for decades. The consequences were devastating. Mouawiya and his peers were apprehended by the notorious Mukhabarat, Syria’s secret police, facing 26 days of torture and humiliation in confinement.
When their families and community rallied for their release, the regime reacted with violence, meeting protests with tear gas, gunfire, and bloodshed. However, rather than quelling the uprising, the regime’s brutal response ignited a fervor that was impossible to extinguish. On March 15, 2011, Syrians across the nation took part in the inaugural “Day of Rage.” Inspired by uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt during the Arab Spring, citizens from every walk of life poured into the streets, demanding liberty, justice, and the resignation of the Assad regime.
Jason Burke, in his article for Middle East Eye (MEE), explains that for most of the last twenty years, the current de facto leader of much of Syria has operated under an alias. Ahmed al-Sharaa, who grew up in a progressive household in a prosperous Damascus neighborhood and trained in medicine, has vanished; in his place stands Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, a jihadist pseudonym derived from the tradition of crafting new identities reminiscent of Islamic history, ensuring a layer of anonymity.
It was Jolani who confronted US troops in Iraq alongside jihadist insurgents from 2003 to 2006 and then spent five years imprisoned in detention centers. It was Jolani who returned to Syria in 2011, participating significantly in the actions of both ISIS and al-Qaeda.
Taking command of the HTS, Jolani has governed two million inhabitants of the northwestern Syrian region of Idlib since 2017. Recently, he led a rebel coalition dominated by HTS during a rapid 12-day campaign that reached Damascus on Sunday (8 December).
In Aleppo, the rebel alliance’s first conquest in this offensive last month, HTS extended amnesties to former regime soldiers, visited homes to reassure Christian populations of their safety, and communicated to Kurdish groups that “diversity is a strength of which we are proud.” Sharaa has actively spearheaded diplomatic outreach to Ismaili Shia leaders to secure key towns for the rebels without significant casualties. The pertinent question now is whether Sharaa will ascend to a prominent role in Syria’s power structure.
Yet, the rapidly evolving situation raises questions about whether Western powers, led by the US with support from Israel, are attempting to replicate the Iraqi scenario in Syria once again. The pattern is seemingly straightforward: first, instigate conflict; next, sell arms to the nation suffering the effects; and ultimately, destroy its infrastructure. All this occurs under the guise of profit-making—not only through weapon sales but also through reconstruction efforts led by Western corporations once these powers claim to have achieved their objectives, or as international isolation escalates. (IPA Service)
Leave a Reply