BANGKOK, Feb 24: The recent sudden change in U.S. policy by President Donald Trump regarding Ukraine has ignited fears that China might feel encouraged to assert its claims over Taiwan. However, analysts believe that Beijing is likely adopting a cautious stance, preferring to observe how developments unfold in Europe.
In the last couple of weeks, Trump inaccurately suggested that Ukraine “should have never started the war,” speculated that Ukraine “may be Russian someday,” and cast doubt on the legitimacy of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s administration. This shift marks a significant departure from the traditional U.S. approach of isolating Russia due to its aggression, with Trump engaging in direct dialogue with Moscow and echoing viewpoints similar to those of the Kremlin.
Prior to his meetings with Trump on Monday, French President Emmanuel Macron highlighted the necessity of demonstrating strength against President Putin, stating, “It’s not you, it’s not your trademark, it’s not in your interest. How can you, then, be credible in the face of China if you’re weak in the face of Putin?”
The connection between Ukraine and Taiwan raises important questions.
Similar to Moscow’s assertions regarding Ukraine as rightful Russian territory, China lays claim to the self-governing island of Taiwan, with President Xi Jinping not ruling out the possibility of using force.
On Friday, Trump appeared to retract his earlier statements blaming Ukraine for instigating the conflict, but the overall rapid shift in U.S. policy may cause some in Taiwan to doubt “whether the United States could withdraw its support from them as well,” according to Russell Hsiao, executive director of the Global Taiwan Institute in Washington.
However, while Beijing is closely monitoring Trump’s remarks, hasty actions are unlikely, Hsiao noted.
“I don’t foresee Xi Jinping being rash enough to assume that just because Trump behaved a certain way regarding Ukraine, he would do the same when it comes to Taiwan,” Hsiao stated. “Trump’s actions are too unpredictable.”
Trump’s administration has shown shifting attitudes towards Taiwan.
Upon leaving office in 2021, Trump enjoyed significant popularity in Taiwan and was acknowledged for deepening U.S.-Taiwan relations.
U.S. law mandates that Taiwan should receive adequate military supplies and technology to defend against potential invasions from the mainland, yet the U.S. adheres to a policy of “strategic ambiguity” regarding direct military support for Taiwan.
Recently, Trump has adopted a more critical stance towards Taiwan, suggesting that it should financially contribute to its own military defense. He has also accused Taiwan of undermining U.S. computer chip manufacturing and hinted at imposing tariffs on semiconductors earlier this month.
Simultaneously, Trump appointed numerous hardliners on China to his administration, including high-ranking positions such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.
Following a meeting with NATO allies in Brussels earlier this month, Hegseth emphasized that if the U.S. were to reduce its support for Ukraine, it would shift focus to the Asia-Pacific region, leaving European defense primarily to European countries.
“The deterrent effect in the Pacific can principally be led by the United States,” Hegseth remarked.
Shortly after, Rubio issued a joint statement with his colleagues from Japan and South Korea during a security conference in Munich, underlining the necessity of maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait as essential for the security and prosperity of the international community.
In a move that displeased Beijing, the State Department recently altered a U.S. government fact sheet regarding Taiwan, removing the language that opposed Taiwanese independence.
These developments are likely to make Beijing reconsider its position.
“If I were in Beijing, I would be paying particular attention to what Hegseth mentioned about the shift in U.S. support for Ukraine,” said Meia Nouwens, a senior fellow specializing in Chinese security and defense policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.
“Hegseth indicated that this was about prioritizing the Indo-Pacific, suggesting that the U.S. has other priorities, which may not be reassuring for Beijing,” Nouwens remarked.
The change in approach concerning Ukraine provides China with an opportunity to promote the narrative that the U.S. is an unreliable ally; however, it’s unlikely that Beijing would interpret Washington’s apparent readiness to relinquish Ukrainian territory as a sign of potential U.S. tolerance towards Taiwan succumbing to Chinese control.
“The overarching trajectories of both the U.S. and China remain largely unchanged,” Nouwens affirmed. “Neither side is willing to relinquish any area, as both seek to bolster their national strength.”
It’s important to highlight that early in Trump’s first term, there were apprehensions that his administration might align too closely with China, yet he ultimately adopted a tougher stance than his predecessors, according to Euan Graham, a senior defense analyst with the Australian Strategic Policy Institute.
Graham noted that though all U.S. allies “should be alarmed by the Trump administration’s withdrawal from support for Ukraine and its readiness to engage with Putin,” it’s overly simplistic to assume a similar approach would apply to the China-Taiwan scenario.
“It’s more likely that the U.S. administration is mistakenly seeking to sideline Ukraine by framing it as a European issue, in an attempt to confront China from a more advantageous position,” Graham explained. “While this is a perilous strategy given the troubling precedent it sets, it is improbable that a similar policy would be replicated regarding China.” (AP)