New Delhi, Mar 4: A global analysis published in The Lancet journal predicts that by 2050, India may have over 440 million individuals classified as obese or overweight, amid controversy surrounding the remarks made by Congress national spokesperson Shama Mohamed regarding Indian cricket team captain Rohit Sharma.
By mid-century, the number of adults affected—estimated to reach 218 million men and 231 million women—could position India second only to China in this category, with the United States, Brazil, and Nigeria following in third, fourth, and fifth place, respectively, as per findings from an international team of researchers.
This research, which includes contributions from the Indian Council of Medical Research, was part of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021.
The study indicates that nearly half of the adult population worldwide—approximately one billion men and more than one billion women aged 25 and older—were considered overweight or obese in 2021. In India alone, figures were almost 180 million, comprising 81 million men and 98 million women.
However, this global figure could surge to nearly 3.8 billion—1.8 billion men and 1.9 billion women—by 2050, which would represent over half of the anticipated adult global population at that time, according to the authors.
“China, India, and the USA will continue to hold a significant share of the global obesity statistics, while the sub-Saharan Africa super-region is projected to see an increase of 254.8%,” they noted.
The researchers also forecast that about 16 million boys and over 14 million girls aged 5-14 years in India could be overweight or obese by 2050, making it the second highest globally after China.
Notably, in the 15-24 age group, India is expected to bear the greatest burden, with more than 22 million men and nearly 17 million women facing this health crisis by 2050.
Emmanuela Gakidou, lead author from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, which oversees the GBD study, remarked, “The unprecedented global epidemic of overweight and obesity is a profound tragedy and a monumental societal failure.”
As the “most comprehensive global analysis to date,” the study aims to assist governments and the public health community in identifying priority populations most affected by obesity, who require immediate intervention, as well as those for whom prevention strategies should be prioritized, Gakidou added.
These updated estimates arrive in the context of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s strong advocacy for tackling obesity, highlighted in his monthly ‘Mann Ki Baat’ broadcast on February 23, emphasizing the need to address obesity for a fitter and healthier nation.
Obesity, defined as having a body mass index (BMI) over 30, can lead to a range of health issues, raising the risk of metabolic and heart diseases, as well as adversely affecting bone health, fertility, and increasing cancer risk.
Nevertheless, experts have recently called for a more nuanced approach to evaluating obesity. In January, authors of a report from the Lancet Commission proposed a revised framework for diagnosing obesity, advocating for the inclusion of metrics such as waist circumference or waist-to-hip ratio in addition to BMI.
They argue that BMI alone may not accurately represent an individual’s health status, which can lead to incorrect diagnoses. The team suggested introducing two new categories—’clinical obesity’ and ‘pre-clinical obesity’—to better identify conditions related to obesity. Clinical obesity refers to a chronic condition linked to obesity-related organ dysfunction, while pre-clinical obesity pertains to increased health risks without the presence of illness.
